Breaking News: The Syrian army is preparing for a major military operation to capture Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces if Kurdish forces refuse to cooperate, sources told The National. The offensive could start as early as October, aiming to regain control over key parts of eastern Syria.
Why the Offensive Is Planned
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly composed of Kurdish fighters, have not agreed to hand over their territories to Damascus. Security sources say a Syrian army force of about 50,000 is being gathered near Palmyra to move north along the Euphrates River. The army is expected to receive support from local Arab tribal populations in the two provinces.
- A key condition for the operation is approval from the United States.
- Syria also wants to ensure Israel does not intervene, after the Israeli airstrike on Damascus last month.
- US-sponsored talks with the SDF have stalled, leaving both sides at a standstill.
Rising Tensions and Deadly Clashes
Relations between the SDF and the Syrian government have worsened since March, when both sides signed a deal to integrate the Kurdish forces into the Syrian army. Despite this agreement, clashes have increased.
- The SDF has refused to give significant powers to Damascus, frustrating Washington and Turkey.
- During the civil war, the SDF controlled many productive areas, including energy and electrical power sources.
- Deadly confrontations have made restoring central control one of the biggest challenges for Syria’s stabilization.
Staging Grounds and Military Strategy
Sources say the Syrian army is preparing staging areas in Rasafah and Sukhnah, which connect Palmyra to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. Turkish-backed forces in Aleppo will also move against SDF positions near the Tishreen Dam once the attack starts.
- Many Arab tribesmen who previously joined the SDF may turn against them, helping government forces.
- About 30% of the 70,000 SDF fighters belong to Arab tribes, making this a critical factor in the offensive.
- Even with a major advance, the SDF may retain control of Hasakah province, which has a large Kurdish population.
Kurdish Position and US Role
The Kurds, who make up roughly 10% of Syria’s population, want a federal system and to remain as a single military unit, even if they join the Syrian army.
- US officials continue to urge the SDF to compromise, although they maintain strong support for the Kurds within the security branches.
- During the war, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the US established zones of influence. Currently, only Turkish and American forces remain alongside limited Russian troops.
- About 20,000 Turkish soldiers are near SDF-controlled areas, while roughly 1,000 American troops are stationed within Kurdish territories.
The Bigger Picture
The control of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor is strategically important for Syria, as these provinces produce key resources. Arab populations in the east are likely to support the government due to past conflicts with the Kurds.
- Regaining these areas is part of a larger effort to stabilize the country after years of civil war.
- The operation reflects ongoing tensions between local forces, international powers, and neighboring countries like Turkey and Israel.
- Analysts say the outcome of this offensive could reshape power dynamics in Syria and influence US and Russian strategies in the region.
Latest News and Daily Updates: The situation in eastern Syria continues to evolve rapidly. The SDF’s refusal to hand over land and the Syrian army’s planned offensive make this one of the most critical security developments in the Middle East this year.
