The artificial intelligence (AI) market may look united today, but experts say that could change very soon. According to investors and market analysts, 2026 could be the year when the AI industry clearly splits into different groups. Some companies will make strong profits, while others may struggle to justify the money they are spending.
In the last few months of 2025, tech markets moved up and down quickly. Shares rose fast, then fell just as quickly. This made many investors nervous and raised fresh fears about an AI bubble. These sharp market swings are now seen as an early warning sign of what could come next.
1. Why Investors Are Becoming More Careful
Stephen Yiu, chief investment officer at Blue Whale Growth Fund, says investors are starting to ask tougher questions. In the past, many people invested in AI companies without looking closely at how those companies actually make money.
- Some firms have exciting AI products but no clear business model.
- Others are spending huge amounts on data centres, chips, and power.
- A smaller group is earning money by selling tools, chips, or services to AI builders.
Until now, many investors treated all these companies the same. But that approach may not last much longer.
2. Three Groups Emerging in the AI Market
Yiu believes the AI market is slowly breaking into three clear camps.
The first group is private AI companies and startups. This includes firms building popular AI models and tools. These companies attracted massive funding in 2025, as excitement around AI, Gemini-style models, and DeepSeek-type systems grew.
The second group is Big Tech companies. Firms like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google are spending billions to build AI systems. They are buying chips, building data centres, and using huge amounts of electricity. This makes them very powerful, but also very expensive to run.
The third group is AI infrastructure suppliers. These are the companies selling chips, hardware, and networks to everyone else. Many investors now believe this group could be the biggest long-term winner.
3. Valuations Are Rising — and So Are Risks
Many large tech stocks are now trading at very high prices. Yiu says this is because investors expect AI to drive huge growth in the future. But high expectations can be dangerous.
- If AI profits grow slower than expected, share prices could fall.
- Companies spending heavily on AI may see their costs rise faster than revenues.
- Investors may stop rewarding growth stories without real earnings.
This is why some fund managers now prefer companies that receive AI spending, rather than those burning cash to build AI systems.
4. Optimism vs Reality in New AI Areas
Another risk lies in newer parts of the AI world, such as quantum computing and experimental technologies. Some of these firms have strong stories but little or no income.
Julien Lafargue, a market strategist, warns that optimism alone cannot support prices forever. He says many investors are buying shares based on hope, not results.
This mirrors how hype can build around consumer tech too — similar to excitement seen every year around products like the iPhone 17, before real sales numbers are known.
5. Big Tech Is Changing Its Business Model
In the past, Big Tech companies were light on physical assets. Today, that is no longer true. AI has forced them to become heavy investors in:
- Data centres
- Graphics chips (GPUs)
- Power supply and land
This shift changes how these companies should be valued. They now carry higher costs and higher risks. Some analysts say it no longer makes sense to treat them like simple software firms.
6. Debt, Spending, and Future Pressure
To fund AI expansion, many tech firms turned to debt markets in 2025. While some companies still have strong cash positions, others are becoming more stretched.
Experts say the real test will come if AI income does not grow fast enough to cover these new costs. If that happens:
- Profit margins could shrink
- Investors may question long-term returns
- Share prices could diverge sharply
This could lead to even bigger gaps between winners and losers in the AI market.
The AI revolution is still in its early stages, but the next phase will be about results, not just promises. And that is when the real divide in the AI market may finally appear.
