Ukraine is working hard to secure military and financial help from the European Union as Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency raises concerns. Trump’s win on November 5 has led to questions about how much support Ukraine can expect from the U.S. and EU moving forward.
Uncertain Future with Trump
Trump’s plans for Ukraine are unclear, and that is making Kyiv anxious. Last year, Trump pushed U.S. lawmakers to delay a $61.4 billion military aid package for Ukraine. He also claimed he would end the war “in a day” if he were elected. This raised worries in Ukraine about whether the promised military assistance under President Joe Biden would be fully delivered before the transition of power on January 20.
Current U.S. Aid Status
According to Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder, most of the military aid promised has already been delivered. Specifically, 83% of munitions, 67% of critical air defense systems, and 60% of firepower capabilities have reached Ukraine between April and mid-October. However, Ukraine is concerned that any changes under Trump’s administration could affect future support.
Russia’s Perspective
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, mentioned that he did not expect major shifts in the U.S. position on Ukraine once Trump takes office. Yet, Trump’s demands have raised eyebrows in Europe. He has urged NATO members, including EU countries, to increase defense spending to 3% of their GDP. He even hinted that if they don’t comply, he might let Russia act freely in those regions, which could potentially mean less U.S. support for Ukraine.
EU’s Military and Financial Role
This situation has made the EU consider its role more seriously. The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, stated that the bloc is on track to deliver one million artillery shells by the end of the year, as promised in spring 2023. He noted that more than 980,000 shells had already been sent, and the EU is expected to meet its target soon.
The EU has been purchasing shells through a program involving countries like the Czech Republic, boosting deliveries by another half-million rounds by the end of the year. Borrell added that the EU’s production capacity for military shells had increased to a million shells annually, showcasing the bloc’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.
Total EU Aid for Ukraine
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the EU has spent around 122 billion euros (approximately $129 billion) to support Ukraine. This assistance includes military, financial, and humanitarian aid, highlighting the EU’s critical role in backing Ukraine during the conflict.
Future Support and Russian Assets
If U.S. aid slows or stops, the EU could consider using $300 billion in Russian assets held within its jurisdiction to support Ukraine. There has been growing support for this move recently, but some EU countries worry about possible negative impacts on their economies. Currently, the EU has only agreed to hand over the profits from these assets, as fully seizing them could create financial risks, including harm to the euro.
- Trump’s Potential Policies: Trump’s unclear plans and past actions raise concerns about future U.S. support for Ukraine.
- U.S. Military Aid Status: Most aid promised by the Biden administration has been delivered, but worries remain about upcoming changes.
- EU’s Commitment: The EU is ramping up its military support, aiming to fulfill promises made earlier this year.
- Financial Aid and Russian Assets: Discussions on using Russian assets to aid Ukraine are intensifying, but economic concerns persist.
Ukraine’s situation is at a crossroads as Trump’s return to power creates uncertainties. While the U.S. has supported Ukraine significantly, future support might hinge on EU efforts and how Europe handles its economic and military strategies. The EU’s ramped-up production and financial assistance will be vital if U.S. aid becomes less certain.
