The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance is expected to achieve a major victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections, according to exit polls conducted by Axis My India. The ruling alliance, which includes BJP, Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), is projected to secure between 178 and 200 seats in the 288-member assembly.

In contrast, the opposition alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (original faction)—is expected to win only 82 to 102 seats. This gives the ruling alliance a clear majority, reflecting its strong voter base and strategic campaigning.

Key Predictions: Vote Shares and Seat Divisions

  1. Vote Share
    • The Mahayuti alliance is predicted to secure a 48% vote share, significantly higher than the opposition MVA’s 37%.
    • Other smaller parties and independent candidates are projected to account for the remaining votes.
  2. Region-Wise Performance
    • Mumbai Region: Out of 36 seats, the BJP-led alliance is expected to win 22 seats with a vote share of 45%, leaving 14 seats for the opposition.
    • Vidarbha: The Mahayuti is projected to win 39 out of 62 seats, with the MVA likely to grab only 20 seats.
    • Konkan and Thane Region: Predictions favor Mahayuti with 24 seats out of 39, while the opposition alliance may get 13 seats.
    • North Maharashtra: A stronghold for Mahayuti, the alliance is predicted to win 38 out of 47 seats, leaving just 7 seats for the MVA.
    • Western Maharashtra: Though the MVA is expected to perform slightly better here, it may only secure 21 seats, compared to Mahayuti’s commanding 36 seats.

What Other Exit Polls Say

The majority of exit polls echo similar predictions of a sweeping victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, with some minor variations:

  1. P-MARQ Exit Poll
    • Mahayuti: 137-157 seats
    • MVA: 126-147 seats
    • Others: 2-8 seats
  2. Matrize Exit Poll
    • Mahayuti: 150-170 seats
    • MVA: 110-130 seats
    • Others: 8-10 seats
  3. Chanakya Exit Poll
    • BJP-led alliance: 152-160 seats
    • Congress-led MVA: 130-138 seats
  4. People’s Pulse Exit Poll
    • Mahayuti: 175-195 seats
    • MVA: 85-112 seats
    • Others: 7-12 seats

These projections suggest that while the MVA might put up a notable fight, it will fall short of crossing the majority mark of 145 seats needed to form the government.

Factors Behind Mahayuti’s Strong Performance

  1. Unified Campaigning
    The BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and Ajit Pawar’s NCP have successfully consolidated their voter base, focusing on stability and development.
  2. MVA’s Internal Struggles
    Disagreements among MVA members and factional splits within the NCP have weakened the opposition’s overall appeal.
  3. Regional Influence
    Mahayuti’s strong presence in regions like North Maharashtra and Vidarbha has helped it dominate key areas.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is on course to achieve a decisive win in the Maharashtra elections. With a clear majority, it is poised to continue governing the state and implementing its agenda. Meanwhile, the opposition MVA will need to regroup and address internal challenges to remain a relevant force in Maharashtra politics.